Industria
AlixPartners: As the global automotive market recovers more slowly than anticipated, China is rapidly emerging as an industry superpower
As a result, sales figures in Europe will be more than 15% below pre-Covid levels in the longer term with the UK fairing slightly better at c.10% below pre-Covid levels but levelling off at c.2. 4m vehicles sold annually by around 2026.
At the same time, European OEMs are also increasingly under pressure in their home markets from Chinese manufacturers, more and more of whom are pushing into European markets with electric vehicles. In the first quarter of 2023, China replaced Japan as the world leader in automotive exports – an astonishing advancement from sixth place as recently as 2019.
These are among the key findings from global consulting firm AlixPartners 2023 Global Automotive Outlook, a regularly cited source of reference for the OEMS, suppliers and industry commentators alike.
In the UK, investment in battery manufacturing capacity has not materialised at the levels seen elsewhere – increasing the UK's reliance on China and recent drops in raw material costs have reversed yet again due to rising Chinese demand, remaining between 30-80% above pre-Covid levels.
China continues its growth trajectory not only as an attractive sales market but also as an exporter and producer in equal measure. This is also reflected in the Chinese domestic market: in 2023, for the first time in decades, Chinese brands will surpass foreign ones (51%) and are predicted to reach a home market share of 65% by 2030.
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At the same time, costs are escalating and becoming a critical factor for OEMs and automotive suppliers alike. Raw material costs will not return to pre-Covid levels and have recently risen, yet again, to 30-80% of pre-Covid levels. With China's continued market growth, forecast to achieve 117% on pre-covid volumes, AlixPartners does not foresee battery capacity catching up with demand and, in jurisdictions such as the UK, requirement, in the near term.
As a result, it is becoming increasingly apparent that combustion engines and electric vehicles will exist in parallel for longer than originally expected. The lengthening ICE lifetime is helped by the fact that the drawn-out decline in the cost of batteries will significantly dampen the pace of the transition to electric mobility in the medium term. This 'twin-tracking' prevents the establishment of rapid economies of scale and in turn further increases the acute financial pressure on the industry.
Rising capital costs round off the negative scenario. Automotive suppliers are confronted with a rapid increase in net debt due to their sandwiched position (+27% since 2018). The chance of passing on further manufacturing cost increases from material and labour through to OEMs is low and yet at the same time the transition to electromobility requires a high level of operational liquidity.
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2023 is the 20 year of the AlixPartners Global Automotive Outlook. The globally recognised study is considered one of the most important trend barometers of the automotive industry worldwide, allying industry data with the unique insights of AlixPartners Automotive experts. For the study, the global consultancy evaluated the financial results of more than 300 automotive manufacturers and suppliers, undertook consumer surveys, and conducted almost 100 expert interviews.
AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical opportunities. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981 in Detroit , AlixPartners is headquartered in New York , and has offices in more than 20 cities around the world. For more information, visit www.alixpartners.com.
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