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HTX DeepThink: With Macro Data Storm Ahead, Bitcoin Approaches a Directional Inflection Point
Although markets broadly expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates again in December, Powell emphasized last week that due to the government shutdown and resulting gaps in official data, policymakers may not have access to complete labor-market and inflation indicators before the meeting. Therefore, this week's cluster of high-frequency data will directly determine whether the probability of a December cut falls back toward 50% or surges close to 100%.
The first major release is the . Manufacturing has been in contraction since March, with last month's reading at just 48.7. Both new orders and employment sub-indices remained below 50, reflecting ongoing uncertainty from tariffs and weakening global demand.
By contrast, the held at a moderate 52.4 expansion, though its price sub-index stayed elevated near 70, showing that inflation pressure now comes more from domestic services rather than imports. If November services remain resilient, hawkish voices inside the Fed will be reinforced; if the index slips back to 50 or below, a December cut becomes almost assured.
The is the biggest swing factor. With October's nonfarm payrolls cancelled and November NFP postponed until December 16 (after the FOMC meeting), this week's data becomes crucial. October ADP added 42,000 jobs, beating expectations. A stronger-than-expected November print would weaken the case for immediate easing; a softer reading would strengthen the argument for faster policy accommodation. Closely following is the , which saw October layoffs surge to 153,074—the highest in 22 years. If November layoffs continue rising, markets will quickly reprice the risk of a U.S. labor-market downturn.
On Friday, the spotlight shifts to , the week's most important macro event. Markets expect headline PCE for September to edge up from 2.7% to 2.8%, with core PCE holding at 2.9%. If the data continue to show inflation stuck near 3%, the Fed's rate-cut pace will remain constrained; if PCE unexpectedly softens, markets will gain short-term relief.
In U.S. equities, Goldman's trading desk highlights that as volatility receded and market breadth rebounded from –150 to +150, systemic selling pressure was largely flushed out by mid-November. Institutional positioning models now expect . This means the traditional "Santa Rally" is not dead—the ignition simply depends on whether this week's data support the rate-cut trajectory.
, Bitcoin has bounced back above $85K , according to HTX data, after a nearly 30% drawdown from its October peak, but overall sentiment remains fragile amid thin liquidity. ETFs continue to see mild outflows, while the Coinbase premium stays weak, signaling institutional caution. Options markets display a classic risk-averse posture: . Investors remain willing to pay for downside protection, reflecting expectations of short-term volatility spikes.
Overall, the crypto market is in a sensitive phase where .
In the current environment, taking heavy one-sided bets carries elevated risk. Market structure tends to show gradual accumulation behavior near lower ranges, while elevated short-term IV provides room for hedging. The remains a notable support, but a genuine trend reversal will depend on clearer signals from this week's macro releases.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
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