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HTX DeepThink: Tariff Shift and Capital Inflows -- A Brief Window for Crypto Opportunity
In his first 100 days, President Trump swiftly implemented several crypto‐friendly measures, including refining the stablecoin regulatory framework and cutting government spending via DOGE. Next, the White House will focus on finalizing trade agreements and advancing a Russia–Ukraine peace effort, while pushing through the "Big, Beautiful" package—featuring large tax cuts, robust border security measures, and regulatory rollbacks—and securing Senate passage of the FIT21 bill to provide a clear framework for U.S. digital‐asset regulation.
Last week, crypto markets initially decoupled from U.S. equities, driven by a weakening dollar, increased crypto allocations from traditional firms and financial institutions, rising on‐chain stablecoin issuance, and continued net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs—pushing Bitcoin up to $88,000 . Later, softened rhetoric on tariffs from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bissenet further boosted sentiment. However, while signals of trade progress were encouraging, actual agreements remain months away, and hard‐line tariff hawks within the administration continue to exert significant influence, posing major uncertainty for the outlook.
This week's macro calendar is pivotal.
If the data shows weakening growth but easing inflation, it will bolster mid-year rate-cut expectations and likely lift risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum in tandem. Conversely, if all metrics exceed forecasts, rate-cut hopes may be delayed or rate-hike fears revived, driving Treasury yields and the dollar higher and weighing on the crypto market in the short term.
In extreme cases:
As of now, the Fed's reserve balances stand at about $3.3 trillion , overnight reverse repos at $94 billion , and the Treasury General Account remains high—conditions that technically allow for a rate cut. Yet in FY 2024, the Fed paid $226.8 billion in interest on reserves and RRP, while earning only $158.8 billion on Treasuries and MBS, resulting in a $77.5 billion net loss. A 0.3 ppt rate cut would reduce annual portfolio income by roughly $20 billion on $6.7 trillion of assets, widening losses and slashing remittances to the U.S. Treasury. To preserve its financial sustainability and political independence, the Fed has chosen to keep rates unchanged.
If this week's data align with a slowdown, May may offer a brief liquidity window as funds rotate back into crypto. However, once the debt ceiling is raised—likely in June to July—the Treasury will refill its TGA to $50–60 billion via new bond issuance, draining equivalent liquidity from markets. Short‐term rates will rise, and risk assets will come under pressure; historically, Bitcoin and the broader market have fallen about 5%–10% in the weeks following such TGA rebuilds. Investors should therefore capitalize on the early‐May window while hedging for the summer liquidity drain.
Against a backdrop of intersecting policy catalysts and liquidity shifts, near‐term tactics should focus on key data releases and the May liquidity window, while longer‐term attention centers on FIT21 implementation and continued institutional adoption of BTC and other assets like Solana. The next major uptrend may well arise under these dual tailwinds—seize the opportunity.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or solicitation to offer or recommendation of any investment product.
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX Group, responsible for conducting in-depth analyses, producing comprehensive reports, and delivering expert evaluations across a broad spectrum of topics, including cryptocurrency, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
View original content:https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/htx-deepthink-tariff-shift-and-capital-inflows--a-brief-window-for-crypto-opportunity-302441115.html