Danexit Could Follow Brexit

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A nationally representative poll of Danish voters revealed that 30 percent of respondents would stay in the EU while an extraordinary high number, 27 percent, would vote to leave if Britons do the same. The margin of error was +/- 3.1 percentage points. Historically, the Danish "stay" camp has often tended to outnumber the "exit" camp by a 2:1 margin.

The survey was carried out in late March by the Epinion polling agency for Analyseenheden 4V, a non-partisan Danish business consultancy, which has analysed the British referendum's ramifications for trade and politics.

"No referendum has been called, but if it were, the result would likely be a Daxit, or Danexit," said Erik Hogh-Sorensen, partner in Analyseenheden 4V.

In its 55-page legal and economic analysis, 4V foresees no international economic meltdown regardless of the UK result. But Brexit would pose long-term problems for Denmark's EU membership. Given a 1.1 percent voting share in the Council of Ministers, the export-oriented Danish economy is heavily reliant on British support for a liberal free-trade agenda.

"Britain and Denmark entered together in 1973 and remain political and economic allies. Neither country is a member of the euro," said Hogh-Sorensen.

In the survey, 7 percent answered "don't know" while 34 percent would "wait and see and make a decision later."

Denmark has a long EU referenda tradition. Most lately on 3 December 2015 when a majority (53.1% vs. 46.9%) rejected the government's wish to abolish Denmark's opt-out on judicial affairs and common EU migration policy.

"The yes side started out way ahead in the polls, but ended up losing as undecided voters made up their opinion," said Hogh-Sorensen.

Contact: Erik Høgh-Sørensen, Partner, Analyseenheden 4V, [email protected], +4551418410