Lord Ashcroft Poll of Marginal Tory Seats

The poll finds Labour have made no headway in their target seats since 2011. However, despite David Cameron remaining in the lead as the best Prime Minister and Labour's failure to establish trust on the economy, the tripling of UKIP's vote share in marginal constituencies since the last election could put Ed Miliband in Number 10.

The poll finds Labour have made no headway in their target seats since 2011. However, despite David Cameron remaining in the lead as the best Prime Minister and Labour's failure to establish trust on the economy, the tripling of UKIP's vote share in marginal constituencies since the last election could put Ed Miliband in Number 10.

In the 32 seats where Labour are the main challengers, the swing of 8.5% since 2010 would be enough for all of them to fall to Labour. However, a small swing away from the Lib Dems would see the Conservatives holding onto the 8 seats in which Nick Clegg's party came second in 2010.

The survey of the 40 most marginal Conservative-held seats, conducted in August and September, will be published on ConservativeHome on Sunday 15 September. The results include:

Commenting on the results, Lord Ashcroft said:

"Though this is only a snapshot, the picture is clear - despite their narrow national poll lead, Labour are further ahead in the marginals where it matters. Labour have made no progress in the last two years, but if UKIP do as well at the general election as this poll suggests Ed Miliband could become Prime Minister with a comfortable majority.

"But it is not close to being over yet. Labour have yet to establish real trust on managing the economy, David Cameron is still seen as the best Prime Minister, and more people say Britain is heading in the right direction than say the opposite.

On the threat to Conservative prospects posed by UKIP, he added:

"The debate will continue within the party as to how far the Tories can tempt voters back by being more like UKIP, and how many will be persuaded that by voting for a fringe party they will open the door to a Prime Minister Miliband. But the priority must be to be a competent government with the right priorities and show that the Conservatives are on the side of ordinary voters.

"With 20 months to go until polling day I think we are in for a close and exciting election."

View the poll summary:: http://multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/prne/operations/Lord-Ashcroft-Forty-Marginal-Polls.pdf

Notes to Editors