Lord Ashcroft Poll of Marginal Seats

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Tories Set to Topple Lib Dem Marginals

More than a dozen Liberal Democrat seats could fall to the Conservatives at next year's general election, according to new polling published today by Lord Ashcroft.

The research, involving 17,000 telephone interviews in 17 constituencies closely contested between the Tories and Lib Dems, finds that the Conservative vote has fallen by 8 points since 2010 - but the Lib Dem share has fallen by nearly twice as much as many of the party's 2010 voters switch to Labour, UKIP or the Tories. Former Liberal Democrat voters were as likely to say they would vote UKIP as to say they would vote Labour.

Across the battleground, the poll found a 3.5% swing from the Lib Dems to their coalition partners since the last general election. This would be enough for the Conservatives to unseat 15 Lib Dem MPs if this were to happen across the board next May.

However, there are wide variations between seats, suggesting a uniform swing is unlikely. The poll found a 9% swing to the Conservatives in Newton Abbot, an 8% swing in Truro & Falmouth and a 7.5% swing in both Harrogate & Knaresborough and Somerton & Frome - but swings from the Tories to the Lib Dems that would see Nick Clegg's party holding Cheadle, Eastleigh and Sutton & Cheam.

The erosion of the Liberal Democrat vote suggests the party is also at risk of losing seats to Labour where Ed Miliband's party is in second place. The Lib Dem-Labour battleground will be the subject of the next round of Lord Ashcroft's marginals research.

The poll of the Conservative-Lib Dem battleground, conducted between 11 May and 14 June 2014, includes the following findings:

Commenting on the results, Lord Ashcroft said:

"More than any other party the Liberal Democrats' fate will be decided at a local level. Though they have managed to consolidate their position in a few constituencies, the overall trend is clearly in the Conservatives' favour. 

"But like all polls, this is a snapshot not a prediction. There is nearly a year to go, and as my national polling shows, half of voters say they may change their minds before election day." 

Notes to Editors 

View the poll : http://multivu.prnewswire.com/prnehost/PIV693291LordAschcroftPolls.pdf