Lord Ashcroft Poll of Marginal Seats Points to Labour Majority of 84

The research, based on interviews with over 19,000 voters in 213 constituencies throughout Great Britain, suggests an 8 per cent swing to Labour in the Tories' most vulnerable seats. This is lower than the national swing suggested by headline voting intention polls - partly because Labour are finding it hard to break through in Conservative seats in London and parts of the South.

The research, based on interviews with over 19,000 voters in 213 constituencies throughout Great Britain, suggests an 8 per cent swing to Labour in the Tories' most vulnerable seats. This is lower than the national swing suggested by headline voting intention polls - partly because Labour are finding it hard to break through in Conservative seats in London and parts of the South.

Of the Liberal Democrat seats in England and Wales, Nick Clegg would lose 17 to the Conservatives and 13 to Labour - including two where Labour finished third in 2010.

Lord Ashcroft unveiled the findings at the Conservative Home 'Victory 2015' conference in London on Saturday morning. The full details are available on his website, LordAshcroftPolls.com. The main findings are as follows:

Emphasising that the poll represented a snapshot not a prediction, Lord Ashcroft said:

"I don't want to see a Labour majority of 4, let alone 84. But I hope this puts the challenge into some sort of perspective. We have a long way to go to hold onto the seats we gained last time, let alone pick up many more. But things are slightly less grim than the headline polls suggest, and we have everything to play for."

For the results in full please go to http://multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/prne/operations/Lord_Ashcroft_poll_of_marginal_seats.pdf

Notes to Editors