Novuna Business Finance: Small business growth forecasts fall in every industry sector

Following last summer's General Election bounce, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen from 35% to 25% over the last 12-months. The new figures for Q4 2025 represent the lowest point for growth predictions since the outbreak of the Covid Pandemic in spring 2020. Following last summer's General Election bounce, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen from 35% to 25% over the last 12-months. The new figures for Q4 2025 represent the lowest point...

Following last summer's General Election bounce, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth has fallen from 35% to 25% over the last 12-months. The new figures for Q4 2025 represent the lowest point for growth predictions since the outbreak of the Covid Pandemic in spring 2020.

In every industry sector, the percentage of small businesses predicting growth is down on the position at the start of the year.

Jo Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance, comments: "Whilst small business growth forecasts are down this year, the underlying concern is the ongoing slide over consecutive quarters. Last July there were signs of optimism, an 'Election bounce' perhaps, as the percentage of enterprises predicting growth rose to 35% having been locked at the early 30 mark for a number of years. The value of our decade-long tracking research indicates that developments in 2025 are significant: this spring, the percentage predicting growth dropped below 30% for the first time in years and, since then, it has continued to fall."

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