Energia
PROGRESS HEADING INTO COP27 DESPITE CURRENT GLOBAL CHALLENGES
The economic and political situation ahead of COP27 is highly challenging. In addition to lingering pressures resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain disruptions, the world now faces record energy and high food prices in many regions resulting from the war in Ukraine . Together these are leading to high inflation, lower growth and risks of recession in many countries.
There is a danger that energy security and short-term economic pressures, together with geopolitical tensions, will divert national and international attention from climate change related issues. But many of the actions needed to build greater energy security could also drive a faster transition to a low-carbon economy, as described in the ETC's paper . Despite the global geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, there is some evidence of progress on climate commitments.
Some voices are challenging whether a 1.5 C trajectory is still feasible. However, each 0.1 C rise above 1.5 C will have hugely significant climate change impacts. The world must continue to aim for this target, and to ensure that any overshoot of it is as low as possible. Both full implementation of COP26 commitments and further progress at COP27 are therefore essential if the world is to have a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
, commented Adair Turner , Chair, Energy Transitions Commission.
Against this backdrop the ETC's new report highlights three priority areas for accelerated progress:
said Adair Turner , Chair, Energy Transitions Commission.
Despite positive momentum at COP26 , an 'ambition gap' remains - current country pledges (NDCs) and commitments do not yet put the world on a 1.5°C trajectory.
The formal country pledges (NDCs) and net-zero targets coming out of COP26 put the world on a pathway to above 2 C of warming. Although since then 24 countries have submitted updated NDCs, only Australia's makes a material impact on closing the emissions gap in 2030.
COP26 also produced a series of sector agreements – including across deforestation, methane, and coal phase out - by countries and private participants that, if fully realised, could put the world on a pathway towards 1.8°C. However, the vast majority are yet to translate into formal country commitments, and critical agreements such as ending deforestation by 2030 are severely underfinanced.
Despite encouraging developments in policy and technology, the world is also facing an 'implementation gap' between pledged targets and on-the-ground progress
This year there has been substantial policy action in the EU, US and China which has started to bridge the implementation gap, with ambitious targets (and strong prospects for implementation) set out in the REPowerEU package, the US Inflation Reduction Act, and in China's 14 Five-Year-Plan.
Despite good news on developed country and China commitments and implementation, the current numbers do not add up to 1.5°C – under a full implementation trajectory, developed countries,
China and India alone would likely overshoot the carbon budget needed to "keep 1.5°C alive".
To square the objectives of global emissions reductions and economic development needs in emerging and developing economies, it will be necessary that all countries – but in particular the developed economies and China – at the very least achieve and ideally overachieve or increase emissions reduction commitments. Doing this will drive technological progress which will reduce mitigation costs across the world.
remarked Nigel Topping , the UN Climate Change High-Level Champion for the UK.
Across all areas ambitious policy action can lead the way, but we identify two key additional drivers of action:
said Mike Hemsley , Deputy Director, Energy Transitions Commission.
Whilst both high-income and developing countries can do more to accelerate their own emissions reductions, two further options exist that can accelerate progress:
Sumant Sinha , Chairman, Founder and CEO of ReNew Power stated that,
To read the full report, visit: https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/degree-of-urgency/
This report constitutes a collective view of the Energy Transitions Commission. Members of the ETC endorse the general thrust of the arguments made in this report but should not be taken as agreeing with every finding or recommendation. The institutions with which the Commissioners are affiliated have not been asked to formally endorse the report.
For further information on the ETC please visit: https://www.energy-transitions.org/
For link to the report and infographics, please visit: https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/degree-of-urgency/
For a full list of supporting quotes, please visit: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fP1niPEemTEPDn9OZxORC2Kfx0dfysuL/view?usp=sharing
To view our full commissioner list, please visit here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rRMqZLs3QBrBIn8j_1oGqVY-xhjrhCqB/view?usp=sharing
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