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YPO Global Pulse survey reveals that EU business confidence returns to record levels
- Low commodity prices and the European Central Bank's significant quantitative easing package led to continued optimism amongst CEOs across the European Union in the first quarter of 2015. The YPO Global Pulse Confidence Index for the EU climbed 1.3 points to 62.5, matching the record high that it achieved in the second quarter of 2014.
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For the first time in the YPO Global Pulse's six-year history, EU confidence is now higher than the global composite level of 61.5 and only marginally below the world's two most optimistic regions, Asia, which landed at 63.6, and the United States, which came in at 63.3.
"The results indicate that favourable economic policies, low fuel prices and the continued devaluation of the euro, are giving business leaders, as well as consumers, a timely boost after an extremely challenging few years," said Andrew Bailey, chairman of ABRS Recruitment & Bailey Group and a member of the YPO London-Westminster Chapter. "That said, CEOs will remain vigilant and cautious throughout the next 12 months, aware of the many threats to sustained economic growth, from both within and outside the region."
The YPO Global Pulse Confidence Index declined 1.0 point in the April 2015 survey to 61.5 from 62.5. The global index continued to track closely to its peak level for the cycle, but growth prospects around the world were increasingly uneven. While confidence rose in Asia and the European Union and remained high in the United States, the indices for Latin America and non-EU Europe both tumbled to 52.4, their lowest levels since the YPO survey began.
In first quarter 2015, confidence levels evened out across the major European economies, as many countries that had experienced extremely fragile levels of confidence over the past few quarters bounced back. France enjoyed the most significant climb in optimism, jumping 9.1 points to 61.2, its highest level for almost four years. Meanwhile Greece climbed 8.1 points to 58.8, and Italy rose 5.3 points to 61.6. Germany gained 2.6 points, landing at 60.8, its highest level since the final quarter of 2010.
In contrast, with its forthcoming national elections in the balance, confidence in the United Kingdom remained almost unchanged, edging up by just 0.1 point to 68.7, still in firmly optimistic territory.
Business leaders in the EU reported increased confidence about the overall business and economic conditions affecting their organisations. More than half (55%) expect conditions to improve in the next six months, whilst only 7% expected conditions to worsen. This compares favourably to the previous quarter, when only 45% predicted an improved economic environment, and 14% believed conditions would deteriorate over the following two quarters.
When looking ahead 12 months, almost two-thirds of CEOs (61%) said they expected to increase sales within the year, a third (32%) expected to increase their workforce, and almost half (43%) expected to increase fixed investments.
The quarterly electronic survey, conducted in the first two weeks of April, gathered answers from 2,211 chief executive officers across the globe, including 216 in the European Union. Visit www.ypo.org/globalpulse for more information about the survey methodology and results from around the world.
YPO (Young Presidents' Organization) is a not-for-profit, global network of young chief executives connected through the shared mission of becoming Better Leaders Through Education and Idea Exchange . Founded in 1950, YPO today provides 22,000 peers and their families in more than 125 countries with access to unique experiences, extraordinary educational resources, access to alliances with leading institutions, and participation in specialised networks to support their business, community and personal leadership. Altogether, YPO member-run companies employ more than 15 million people around the world and generate US$6 trillion in annual revenues. For more information, visit www.ypo.org
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YPO (Young Presidents' Organization)
Linda Fisk
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