CRU: Five features of the pandemic recovery

Forecasting relies on historical relationships and judgements about the future. In 2020 the global economy was hit by a once in a 100 year pandemic. In these unusual times we expect the pandemic recovery to be different to the past and display five key features. Forecasting relies on historical relationships and judgements about the future. In 2020 the global economy was hit by a once in a 100 year pandemic. In these unusual times we expect the pandemic recovery to be different to the past and...

Forecasting relies on historical relationships and judgements about the future. In 2020 the global economy was hit by a once in a 100 year pandemic. In these unusual times we expect the pandemic recovery to be different to the past and display five key features.

Table 1 sets out what one would normally expect during a global recession, key observations about the current recession, and our inferences about the nature of the recovery from the pandemic. We highlight five features, with emphasis on the end use-sectors that matter most to the commodity industry. These features correspond to those shown in Figure 1. 

Consumer services sectors bear the brunt of COVID-19

It is well known that COVID-19 has hurt economic activity in the consumer service sectors by more than it has hurt manufacturing and construction. The main reason is that social distancing is hard to achieve in these sectors. Take for example, travel, eating out, cinemas and shopping – these activities tend to occur with large groups of people, risking virus spread. Figure 2 shows that the consumer service sectors – wholesale, retail and entertainment and arts and entertainment - accounts for about a third of total employment in the EU and the USA. The jobs and income of these workers remain at risk until a vaccine is round, which would allow businesses in these sectors to return to normal.

Read the full story:
https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/spotlights/2020/five-features-of-the-pandemic-recovery/ 

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About CRU

CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.

Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.

CRU employs over 280 experts and has more than 11 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004 and Singapore in 2018.

When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.

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